Blue Dotting i’s and Crossing t’s: StatisNostics looks at Nebraska’s push for a winner-take-all voting system.
With the 2024 presidential election raging on, the state of Nebraska finds itself deeply divided. Many Nebraskans are trying to establish a winner-take-all voting system, where the candidate who wins the state’s popular vote wins all of the electoral votes, instead of their current split-vote system. Nebraska has 5 electoral votes: three for the candidate who wins each congressional district, as well as two more for the candidate who wins the entire state. With Nebraska being majority-Republican, Trump will almost certainly win at least 4 out of 5 of the state’s electoral votes. With a secure 80/20 victory, why are residents still trying to push for winner-take-all? The answer: Omaha. Omaha, Nebraska is a majority-Democratic city in a Republican state. While Republicans will win most of the votes, they are worried that Omaha, aka “The Blue Dot”, may sway the election with a single vote.
According to StatisNostics, a database that utilizes U.S. government census data, Grand Island, NE (the fourth largest city in Nebraska) has a voter ratio of 64% Republican and 34% Democrat (2% other). Most Nebraskan cities also follow this trend. However, Omaha has a voter ratio of 41% Republican and 57% Democrat (2% other). The Democratic majority in Omaha is what worries state residents.
The feud between Nebraska’s red and blue isn’t a recent development. Back in 2008, Obama won Omaha’s Second Congressional District, later causing Omaha’s Republican congressmen to be unseated by a Democrat. Jon McCollister, columnist for the Omaha World-Herald, opposes his state’s effort to establish winner-take-all. Since Nebraska has a “people’s right to referendum” law, even if Republicans were able to push a bill for the winner-take-all system, Democrats would be able to challenge the bill before it becomes a law. Therefore, the bill would be put on hold until after the election in November, rendering the effort useless.
Democratic activist, William Forsee, compared Nebraskan Republicans to spoiled children saying, “ ‘We didn't get our way, and we didn't get our vote, and now we're going to change the rules.’” Will Nebraska be able to turn the tide? Possibly, but the time is ticking as November 3rd approaches.
Mccollister, John. “Column: Nebraska Should Leave Its Electoral Vote System Alone.” Omaha World-Herald, 21 Apr. 2024, omaha.com/opinion/column/column-nebraska-should-leave-its-electoral-vote-system-alone/article_635016ca-fdd7-11ee-9c81-1338e46b2efa.html.
Zeleny, Jeff, and Gregory Krieg. “The Fight for a Single Electoral Vote Rages on in Nebraska | CNN Politics.” CNN, Cable News Network, 11 Apr. 2024, www.cnn.com/2024/04/11/politics/nebraska-election-electoral-college-omaha/index.html.
Smith, Mitch. “Blue Dot for Obama Prompts Red Nebraska to Revisit Electoral College Rules.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 31 Jan. 2015, www.nytimes.com/2015/02/01/us/politics/blue-dot-for-obama-prompts-red-nebraska-to-revisit-electoral-college-rules.html.
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